Noonan on the Republicans' chances
Peggy Noonan latest in the Wall Street Journal is interesting, if true. Here's a taste of it.
"In the Republican base, that huge and amorphous thing, judgments are less tough, more forgiving. But there too things have changed.
There remains a broad, reflexive, and very Republican kind of loyalty to George Bush. He is a war president with troops in the field. You can see his heart. He led us in a very human way through 9/11, from the early missteps to the later surefootedness. He was literally surefooted on the rubble that day he threw his arm around the retired fireman and said the people who did this will hear from all of us soon.
Images like that fix themselves in the heart. They're why Mr. Bush's popularity is at 38%. Without them it wouldn't be so high.
But there's unease in the base too, again for many reasons. One is that it's clear now to everyone in the Republican Party that Mr. Bush has changed the modern governing definition of 'conservative.' "
That would be the change in the definition that for the last year I have been hearing doesn't exist from soi-disant conservatives (as opposed to real conservatives).
BTW, I think the cartoon says it all. Now we'll just have to wait and see if this means anything in terms of election results.
posted by Clemens @ 3:17 PM
6 comments
6 Comments:
>>BTW, I think the cartoon says it
>>all. Now we'll just have to wait and
>>see if this means anything in terms
>>of election results.
I agree that it says it all but I don't think many Republicans will vote for Democrats (unless they are conservative Democrats or the so called "Western Democrats") but they may not show up to the polls or cast protest votes. I am expecting the Dems to take control of the House and the Senate, both narrowly. Part of me thinks it would ultimately be good for Republicans in '08.
--Joey
Conservative pundits (most of whom are pretty much libertarians [*spits*]) tend not to reflect the conservative public (who don't crave 'small government' as a good in itself, as much as the most likely way to achieve efficiency and fairness) as closely as do their Leftist counterparts.
Hence, Buch may be less alienated from conservative voters than a reading of the conservative op-eds would indicate.
If you read conservative blogs, and other columns, and reports by conservatives, even the National Review, you get the view that there _is_ a great deal of dissatisfaction out there. I've posted some of it. There is anecdotal evidence (not always convincing) that many Repubs may indeed be thinking of voting Demo -but it remains to be seen if they really pull the trigger a week from now.
As for Joey's point, with a fired up Demo base smelling blood, all it would take is for Repubs to stay home.
In any case, it may be independent voters who swing the races, and they certainly will consider the Demos.
Of course, I could be wrong.
As you may know, I'm an Australian, so I'll bow to your greater knowledge.
But as a general observation on the media and opinion polling: ever since the Coalition (our conservatives) were elected (over a decade ago), *every* election the media and all the pollsters triumphantly declare the certainty of a Labor (socialist) victory.
Fool me once, shame on you...
Yes, I thought you were an Australian, but was surprised by how closely you follow some of the American political writers.
Anyway, you probably have a point about the polls. I seem to remember they were calling for a Kerry victory last time Bush ran - and won. But there is clearly something going on out there this time around (here in America, I mean). I think it is more a feeling of disgust with the entire political class. Whether that means a demo victory next week or not, I can't be certain. But I think that it will.
I hope that if that happens the demos will understand that the clock will be ticking with a _very_ short timer. They will have to produce, and do it quickly and convincingly. It's darn near impossible to create a third party - but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen.
We'll see.
Conservative pundits (most of whom are pretty much libertarians [*spits*]) tend not to reflect the conservative public (who don't crave 'small government' as a good in itself, as much as the most likely way to achieve efficiency and fairness) as closely as do their Leftist counterparts.
Actually, I think you may be right. We have many factions within the traditional Liberal and Conservative beliefs. < Fermat>I think expounding on the divisions needs its own blog, as the comment field is to small to contain the response< /Fermat>
--Joey
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