16 February 2007

Mitt Romney, Mormons, and the Polls

Some little time ago I asked if Mormons were regarded as Christians and would this have an effect on Christian voters. Now there is at least a partial answer to this question in a new Foxx TV poll that is posted on RealClearPolitics. Here is the question on Romney's religion:

Are you more or less likely to support a candidate who is a Mormon?
Republicans only:
More likely 8% (a lot more likely 4%, somewhat more likely 4%)
Less likely 30% (a lot less likely 19%, somewhat less likely 11%)
Not a major factor 59%

Now it's hard to say what to make of this, but I will try. Those who are less likely, 30%, probably represent Christians of one sort or another, otherwise, what would be their objection? Unless they were secularists who don't want to vote for anyone identified by religion.

The 59% who say it would not be a major factor is probably a bit too high, on the theory that just like people answering polls rarely admit they would not vote for a black candidate because of race, people might not want to appear to vote against a candidate for his religion. The theory is that a significant number are probably lying.

With at least a third of those polled, and we will never know what portion of them may actually vote, saying they would be less likely to vote for a Mormon, Romney might face an uphill battle among the very social conservatives he ought to otherwise appeal to.

But then again, as I was reminded the other night at my Episcopal book club, many people said the same thing about John Kennedy's Catholicism. Since these figures reflect only Repubs, maybe the general electorate would feel differently.

Any ideas would be appreciated.

And please notice I've learned how to spell Mormons in the meantime. It does NOT follow the example of the Normans.

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