The Century War VII: Asia! China! uh... India?
"I give you an Asian world in chaos, a Pacific rim ruled by China after the vacuum of America's withdrawal”
Another frightening pronouncement from the Time Traveler. At least, it’s frightening until you think about it.
Why would the Asian world collapse into chaos? Especially if the Pacific rim were dominated by China? A nation of a billion and a quarter people with a huge army and an expanding economy could be expected to keep order, at the very least. Yes, it could fall apart. The government’s hold over the countryside is not complete, to put it mildly, but that isn’t what the Time Traveler claims. If there were a resurgent China ruling the Pacific rim it would be profoundly anti-Muslim. For an America fighting for its life, this would be just fine. China has its own Muslim minority, its own Muslim terrorists, and its own irredentist dreams of much of Muslim Asia. It currently has it’s own Muslim separatists terrorists in it’s far western Xinjiang province. It is hard to believe that in the scenario sketched by Simmons the Chinese would not end up in serious conflict with their Muslim neighbors: Kyrgystan, Kazakstan, and Pakistan. China has a political/military culture that no one in their right mind would accuse of lacking the necessary “ruthlessness” that Simmons believes is so lacking in us.
You will notice that the Time Traveler doesn’t get around to mentioning the other great Asian power: India. Again, over a billion people, a touchy situation with its own Muslim citizens, claims against Pakistan, and an explosive situation in Kashmir. Surely someone in a nation with the second largest army in the world and nuclear weapons might come up with the idea of using military and police power to “solve” several of these problems.
You might say the same thing about “a resurgent Russian Empire that has reclaimed its old dominated republics and more,” as the Time Traveler puts it. Have you looked at those “old dominated republics”? Most of them are Muslim with Russian minorities. If there were a resurgent Russian empire, it would be chewing up a huge chunk of the Islam world the old fashioned Russian way -- complete with ethnic cleansing. The people of Chechnya seem to offer sufficient proof that Russia, whatever it was doing, would not be a good friend of the Muslim powers during any ‘Century War.’
As far as I can cast my eye forward, I see a world radically different from the one Simmons sees.
posted by Clemens @ 6:21 PM
3 comments
3 Comments:
Okay...so how does the war end?
I think it will end a lot like the Cold War. One day (50-60 years from now) we will just sort of say to ourselves "You know, we haven't had a terrorist attack in a good while. Iraq is fairly stable, as is Iran. Sure, there are outposts of terrorism just as were people still clutching to communism back in the early part of the century. I guess we won"
That, or nuclear war.
--Joey
Oh I forgot to add. There will be one crowning event, such as a Syrian coup, that will remind everyone of the end result.
--Joey
Uhhhh, what war? Or rather, which war? Our war in Iraq, our war in Afghanistan, our war on Terrorism, or Simmons' Century War?
The Iraq war - we pull out with, at best, an only marginally better situation than right now.
The Afghani war - we muddle through with a quasi-democratic gov't in Kabul and a Taliban dominated country along the Pakistani border (unless someone does something either extraordinarly smart, or extraordinarly stupid).
The War on Terror - it fades in the country's consciousness until someone remembers and says "Hey, We won!!" Except for the damage done our Constitution and our position in the world, which will be challenged by China, India and Russia, in that order.
The Century War - it goes the way of Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, and the Piltdown man.
(I reserve the right to change this prediction with 48 second notice)
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