Derbyshire deconstructs Commie Futurist!

Or, at least, something like that.

In the National Review Onlines blog 'The Corner', Derbyshire recounts a speech reported to be by old-line Communist Chi Haotian in which he foresees the need for China to take over North America because "only countries like the United States, Canada and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for mass colonization." He doesn't specifically say what would happen to the people living there now, but implies that they would simply be eradicated.

Now this is good red-meat stuff, on a par with Dan Simmons forecast of the future, and I expected Derbyshire to start frothing, but instead he simply deconstructs the vision, somewhat the way I have tried to do with Simmon's Century War. Here the key conclusion:

Whether China will actually have the will and ability to depopulate North America by biological warfare in the near future is pretty doubtful, though. For one thing, the demographic issue Chi makes much of is a passing phase: all the signs are that the demographic cratering we already see in Japan and S. Korea is in China's near future, too. For another, Chinese society is at present too chaotic and uncontrolled (yes, really) for any unified effort of the kind Chi is fantasizing about. If you still harbor any residual Mao-era notions of a nation of drilled blue ants acting in regimented harmony, go stand at a traffic circle in Beijing for a few minutes. China has to work through some major systemic problems before embarking on any great national project like the de-population and colonization of North America.

Personally I would have doubted the validity of the speech itself since it is reported from a suspect source, but the Derby says he believes it because, well, that's the way old Party warhorses talk - including his father-in-law!