The Century War IV: The Great Shaitan - Iran

Iran is actually the great military, economic and cultural power in that part of the Muslim world. As Indo-European Shia Muslims, they are not likely to side with Semitic Sunni, no matter what Simmons' fantasies are. Yes, it is a dangerous country, but it is one country. I suspect that the recent war in Lebanon is its high water mark of popularity in the Arabic world. Read some of Fouad Ajami, a Shiite Lebanese American, when he talks about his reception among Sunni Arabs or Victor Hanson's comments on how unpopular Iranians are within the Arabic world. For the moment, you can see how likely a Shia/Sunni anti-west pact is by tracking the sectarian slaughter in Iraq.

Yet Iran is genuinely a threat, all by itself, especially if it gets nuclear weapons. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a frightening man, not because he has a delusional and irrational belief in the coming of the hidden Twelfth Imam, but because he is quite sane, quite rational, and clearly knows how to push all our buttons. But he does not rule Iran. The mullahs who do have become rich and comfortable. It hard to see them daring the US to a game of nuclear brinksmanship. This does not even bring up what Israel is likely to do on its own, with or without US approval. And if you think Iran has the capability to be more than a regional threat, let me know who they will accomplish this. The greatest threat Iran has to us right now is it oil threat. Seeing all this as a vast pan-Islamic death pact to take over western civilization may not be the best way of dealing with this problem.