Premature report of a death

I think the wish was father to the thought, as so often in politics.

Now comes the fun part.

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What we thought then

'We' would be me and Joey Sobrino. 'Then' would be March of 2007. The 'what' would be what we thought about the presidential race which was already heating up enough to make me complain.

I know. Some people claim it doesn't take much to make me complain.

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Demos in charge

Might not be as much fun as some of us expect. David Frum (whose blog on NRO remains a forlorn corner of honest rational thought) has this warning in today's Washington Post.

... with the financial meltdown, the federal government is now acquiring a huge ownership stake in the nation's financial system. It will be immensely tempting to officeholders in Washington to use that stake for political ends -- to reward friends and punish enemies. One-party government, of course, will intensify those temptations. And as the federal government succumbs, officeholders will become more and more comfortable holding that stake. The current urgency to liquidate the government's position will subside.

Convincing enough. His next point isn't, but here it is:

Second, the political culture of the Democratic Party has changed over the past decade. There's a fierce new anger among many liberal Democrats, a more militant style and an angry intolerance of dissent and criticism.

After the red-meat Repubs?! How bad can they be. Frum is upset about this because he realizes that to put some kind of check on these trends we will need good Repubs in the Senate and House ... and in his view we are not going to get them because of the way the McCain campaign is imploding. But he has lot of advice for the McCain campaign to correct it!

memo to self: get upset about this ... next month.

The Designated Adult:: unusually dark

Rich Lowry seems to be in a deeply pessimistic mood today, partly because of the latest polls (which, under the circumstances, are still better for McCain than anyone could have hoped and still survivable). Here he is on the Corner today in two separate posts (there are others).

One side effect of McCain's debate gambit is, I'm told, that everyone at Ole Miss now hates him. It will make for a very hostile audience tonight among those students and faculty attending. He might have to apologize for creating the uncertainty or make some explanation up front, which is never ideal.

The Washington Post has an article detailing just how important this debate is to Ole Miss.

Here's the other post entitled 1995 Redux:

A friend on Capitol Hill in a very dark mood thinks so. Last time, House Republicans got blamed for shutting down the government, this time they'll get blamed for shutting down the financial system. He also worries—did I mention he's in a dark mood?—that if nothing passes and the crash comes, the country may arrive at a turning point, moving irrevocably in the direction of a social democracy.

If his friend is right ... One of the things that sets Lowry apart from the others at the Corner is that he can face reality.

Wishful Thinking in politics

Or is it delusional? Here is a bit of political analysis from one of the writers on National Review Online. I am struck more and more at how out of touch, not to say totally delusional, some of the political commentary has gotten over there. There web editor was hoping Dick Cheney would run because he was the best candidate to win in the fall, others were waiting for Fred Thompson, a bit like waiting for Godot, and now they are all getting ready to commit seppuku at the prospect of McCain winning the nomination.

The author, Michael Graham, asks the question 'how to defeat Obama' and concludes it is not a problem.

He's got a glass jaw, and he will fall into the trap of identity politics.

In fact, he already has. The "could we beat Obama?" conversation is purely academic. It's over. The Clintons have defeated him already, because he is leaving South Carolina as "the black candidate."

He won't win another state.

Well, if you say so, though there is the matter of letting the primaries run their course. Just ask the Zogby folks.

Predictions and hindsight: 1900s view on the year 2000

One of the great fascinations of Science Fiction is its mandate to explore the future. This is also true of this 1900 prediction for the year 2000 published in Ladies Home Journal in 1900. When you go back that far to examine predictions the fascination runs both ways: examining the accuracy of the predictions and looking back at the expectations of our ancestors.

In 1900 my grandfather was about 16 years old and, like most people, got around by walking, animal power, or steam driven locomotive, though automobiles were just then becoming a regular sight. The horrors of World War I were still unimaginable. Electric lights were a new and exciting prospect as were electric driven trolleys. It would be a few years yet before my grandfather and his brothers would build the first house in Loudoun County Virginia with indoor plumbing.

So how did the experts in Ladies Home Journal do? Here's one that is pretty much on the money:

The American will be taller by from one to two inches. His increase of stature will result from better health, due to vast reforms in medicine, sanitation, food and athletics. He will live fifty years instead of thirty-five as at present – for he will reside in the suburbs. The city house will practically be no more. Building in blocks will be illegal. The trip from suburban home to office will require a few minutes only [if only this last point were true!]

Some are a little less prescient, to our loss:

There Will Be No Street Cars in Our Large Cities. All hurry traffic will be below or high above ground when brought within city limits. In most cities it will be confined to broad subways or tunnels, well lighted and well ventilated, or to high trestles with “moving-sidewalk” stairways leading to the top. These underground or overhead streets will teem with capacious automobile passenger coaches and freight with cushioned wheels. Subways or trestles will be reserved for express trains. Cities, therefore, will be free from all noises.

Some are just a little odd:

There will be No C, X or Q in our every-day alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary. Spelling by sound will have been adopted, first by the newspapers. English will be a language of condensed words expressing condensed ideas, and will be more extensively spoken than any other. Russian will rank second [notice how they don't consider the language spoken by the greatest number, Chinese, to be worth mentioning].

Some are highly accurate, though the terminology sounds strange to us:

Hot and Cold Air from Spigots. Hot or cold air will be turned on from spigots to regulate the temperature of a house as we now turn on hot or cold water from spigots to regulate the temperature of the bath. Central plants will supply this cool air and heat to city houses in the same way as now our gas or electricity is furnished. Rising early to build the furnace fire will be a task of the olden times. Homes will have no chimneys, because no smoke will be created within their walls.

Read the rest - it's great fun. Also notice one interesting thing. This was long before Women's Lib, or any of the more modern ideas of a woman's role outside the home. Yet these predictions are serious and intelligent and the editors of Ladies' Home Journal expected their readers to appreciate this piece.