Truer words...

... written in a funny article about how all the big shot conservative pundits had no use for Rick Santorum. Until, of course, he nearly beat Mitt Romney in Iowa. But one of them actually saw it coming:

The American Spectator’s Quin Hillyer, for one, was into Santorum before being into Santorum was cool. In early November, when Santorum was still pulling single digits in national polls, Hillyer wrote that Santorum could be “the sharpest, most accomplished, most campaign-savvy “It’s a good thing for Rick Santorum that conventional wisdom, especially in politics, is usually preternaturally stupid,”, and most full-spectrum conservative in a quarter-century of presidential contests . . . working harder than anybody, making at least as much intellectual sense as anybody, never blowing a debate, and never failing to stand on principle.”

Even earlier in July 2010 the same guy wrote these words that should be remembered every time you listen to a political pundit:

“It’s a good thing for Rick Santorum that conventional wisdom, especially in politics, is usually preternaturally stupid.”

So there.

coming soon: the empire strikes back ... and Santorum tanks. Or not.

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CNBC and the Economic Crisis

John Stewart with a review of CNBC, financial pundits (see last post), and Rick Santelli.

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Pundits: the blind leading the slightly less blind

How bad are journalistic pundits at predicting the future course of events? Worse than the average person apparently.

He took 284 pundits and asked them questions about the future. Their performance was worse than chance. With three possible answers, they were right less than 33 per cent of the time. A monkey chucking darts would have done better. This is consoling. More consoling still is Tetlock's further finding that the more certain a pundit was, the more likely he was to be wrong.

This would, of course, explain a lot.

I fearlessly predict that this will have no effect whatsoever on pundit self-confidence.

Hanson is on a roll!

Today in National Review Online Victor Hanson writes a remarkable column about Hillary Clinton. What's remarkable about it? While managing to show his distaste for the Clinton machine he still manages to write a clear-eyed reasonable assessment of her 'crying' moment. He starts out by pointing out how silly most of the rhetoric about it was. One of several good points:

The slur against her was that she was an iron-lady automaton, without emotion; so she needed that tearful introspection; it was not like a quirky, psycho-dramatic Pat Schroeder crying 20 years ago, and thereby confirming what we suspected — that as a fragile personality, she was subject to wild mood swings and undue passions. Hillary’s quarter tear wasn’t the weepy Cowardly Lion serially breaking down, but an appreciated sad drop or two coming from the heartless Tin Man.

His final point is one that ought to have bi-partisan support, especially for those who want to sign up for my "Spirit of Ball's Bluff' campaign.

The campaign talking heads and opinion makers this season have been lousy, about the worst in memory — especially the “she’s won, she’s lost, she’s won...” feeding frenzy, and then writing the silly “end of the Clinton era” essays — all based on a few thousand Iowans, some bad polls in New Hampshire, and catch-up to what some other wrong pundit wrote an hour earlier. And remember, these are “experts” who pontificated each week on the real Iraq war.

Amen to that, brother.

Remberance of things past: 9/11

Looking at the enormous urban square that was once the Twin Towers leads Anna Quindlan in Newsweek to say:

There was a moment when it seemed that what had happened to this nation would result in an unparalleled display of those things that make America great: audacity, community, a sense of the future as a broad plain upon which this country could make its mark for good. Instead, at almost every turn, our government and, yes, many of our citizens took the narrowest road. Instead of expanding we contracted. Instead of a new juncture, we retreated to old ways.

Some clever words from 'Newsweek'

"Americans like history as long as it's over fast enough."

Anna Quindlen in Newsweek.

Too true. Especially now that my university, feeling suitably intellectual after the greatest upset in sports history, has done away with any history requirement at all for its students.

(for another sad commentary on American taste, see this)

Meanwhile at NRO

While at least some of their writers at National Review Online are busy writing what is at least arguably intelligent commentary and analysis (wrong, usually, but intelligent*), the resident court jester, Kay Lo herself, is reduced to making political analysis of this sort.

I wonder if she is still touting Dick Cheney as the Republican candidate for president. She thinks he would be a great candidate and a great president. She also asks the burning question, is jogging right wing?


*wrong, because it disagrees with what Clemens thinks, intelligent because it can keep Clemens interested. That why the blog is named Sententiae.


UPDATE: This just in from NYT via TPM: Cheney's favorability now at 13%. A shame.



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